The Circle of Strife
Published October 3, 2012
Mufasa: Everything you see exists together in a delicate balance. As king, you need to understand that balance and respect all the creatures, from the crawling ant to the leaping antelope.
Simba: But dad, don’t we eat the antelope?
Mufasa: Yes, Simba, but let me explain. When we die, our bodies become the grass, and the antelope eat the grass. And so we are all connected in the great Circle of Life.
— “The Lion King” (1994)
The famous cinematic scene between father and son lions reflects the ties among living things that help create a sustainable ecosystem. Little did the king know his lessons would apply with equal weight to the story line of Middle Eastern tensions.
Consider what’s going on in the Middle East and try for one second to dissociate any of the major plots from one another, and pretty soon you’ll be nodding your head in assent to Mufasa’s sage commentary.
Iran
• As reported this week, Iran’s finances are sliding drastically downward, due to sanctions, including banking restrictions and oil embargoes, imposed by the United States, the European Union and others. The value of its currency, the rial, is at an all-time low. The natives are getting particularly restless, and protests that failed in a time of more economic stability could become more meaningful with austerity.
• Its declining economy is making it less able to support its proxy Syria, which has devolved into an atrocity-laden battlefront with President Bashar al Assad desperately trying to cling to power. In fact, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his spy chief Qassem Suleimani are clashing about financial support to Assad, according to The Times of London.
• Its declining economy is also making it more likely that Iran will come to the table and discuss potential limitations on its nuclear ambitions. Any effective deterrent on Iran’s weapons program must be seen as a step forward for Israel, which is the most reviled player in the region from Iran’s perspective.
Syria
• The human, physical and economic costs of sustaining power will devastate Assad for years to come even if the regime remains in place.
• Assad’s regime has depended on support from other powers in the Middle East, most prominently Iran. And even Muslim nations such as Egypt and Turkey are urging Russia, China and Iran itself to divest from Assad.
• If the United States continues to be invested in Middle East diplomacy and assistance, rebuilding Syria in the wake of its national tragedy, pending leadership with the potential for change, could help diminish the nation’s standing as a supporter of terrorism.
Palestinians
• The so-called “moderates” in the Palestinian equation, Mahmoud Abbas and Saeb Erekat (we say “so-called” because they’ve had more of their share of hateful rhetoric toward Israel), have been unable to bring their side to the table for meaningful discussions, in part emboldened by their financial allies, Iran and Syria, and their financed terrorist buddies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
• If Iran lacks resources and cannot assert control in Syria and the government there falls, Iran’s ability to flex its muscle behind the Palestinian radicals could potentially ease.
• With radicals having less financial support, the pressure eases for the moderates to cater to their demands.
• With that pressure eased, it makes it easier for the moderates to come to the table to talk with.
Israel
• If Iran, Syria and the Palestinians weaken – we know, a big if, and we’re not counting on it, but the Iranian economic stress cannot be discounted – it benefits Israel’s position at the bargaining table.
• If the United States seizes potential Iranian weakness to push for negotiations, the stage may be set for new and potentially constructive talks about the still-wished-for two-state solution.
• The Iranian weakness could also free Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to focus on issues other than Iran, which has monopolized discussion in and about the Jewish State for the last umpteen months.
None of this is to say a weakened Iran is a panacea for anything, and we haven’t even addressed the intricacies of how the Arab Spring will affect the equation. But you can see how the many subplots are so deviously connected, and Iran’s peril does offer a glimmer of hope that if in fact the money plays a major role in the perceived leverage against Israel, then the absence of money may push us back toward a stabilizing Middle East.
As we said, hope, hardly certain. But we’ll take a hope port in the ongoing storm that is the Middle East.