Hydratic Equation
Published January 8, 2014
In the aftermath of the success of the Navy Seals operation to kill Osama bin Laden, and the later successful drone strikes that depleted leadership of al Qaeda, President Barack Obama declared the terror organization “decimated.”
Yet every time there seems to be progress in stifling the effects of terrorism in one place or from one group, another head seems to pop up, not unlike the Hydra of Greek mythology. Consider the following recent events:
• Al Qaeda in Iraq has taken control over the key cities of Fallujah and Ramadi in Anbar province, two major urban areas that were retaken from Sunni militants by United States-led coalition forces. The poorly organized Iraqi army is attempting to mount a campaign to recapture the areas, but its ability to do so without foreign support seems questionable at best. The United Nations reports that last year 8,868 Iraqis were killed in terrorist attacks, the highest death toll since 2008.
• A major offshoot of the resurgent al Qaeda in Iraq, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, has made major gains in the nearly 3-year-old conflagration in Syria, taking key cities and terrorizing the native Christian and Muslim populations. Max Boot in the Wall Street Journal warns that continued AQI successes in Syria “creates the potential for a new nightmare: an al Qaeda state incorporating northern Syria and western Iraq.”
• Sectarian violence in Syria, where thousands of Hezbollah fighters are deployed in support of the regime of dictator Bashar Assad, has spilled over into Beirut, Lebanon, threatening a reprise of bloody civil war that raged from 1975 through 1990. An al Qaeda affiliate took credit for a car bomb that exploded Thursday in a residential neighborhood of Beirut that is a Hezbollah stronghold. The car bombing followed another such attack that killed the Sunni moderate Mohamad Chatah the week before, which a Monday WSJ editorial described as having had “the hallmarks of Hezbollah.”
• Israel, meanwhile, faces threats from both Shiite and Sunni terrorist groups. Hezbollah and Israel fought a bloody war in 2006, and the current situation threatens to explode into another round of fighting. Hezbollah already has as many as 100,000 missiles that have been smuggled into Lebanon from Syria, according to WSJ reports indicating that the missiles are intended “for use against Israel, which has attacked arms shipments headed for Lebanon at least five times in the last year.” Hezbollah now has two to three times the number of missiles it had in 2006—missiles that could also be fired into Israel in the event Israel decided to attack nuclear facilities in Iran if the Geneva diplomacy track failed.
What can or should the United States do to respond to this contagion of extremist violence throughout the Middle East? Secretary of State John Kerry, who is immersed in an intensive effort to achieve agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, said at a news conference in Ramallah that the U.S. is “very, very concerned” over al Qaeda advances in Iraq and would assist the Iraqi government in responding to it. But he ruled out any U.S. “boots on the ground.” Republican Senators John McCain of Arizona and Lindsay Graham of South Carolina lament that the United States failed to achieve an agreement with the Iraqi government to leave a residual force in Iraq to respond more forcefully to events like those unfolding in Fallujah and Ramadi.
The American people are more than war-weary when it comes to active and major military intervention in the Middle East. The policy of entering every conflict in the Middle East and Africa with guns blazing is no longer a viable option in the aftermath of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that cost the lives of over 6,000 Americans and left tens of thousands wounded.
Yet is it right to advocate for a tepid combination of wishful thinking and total disengagement by the U.S. as a permanent strategy? That doesn’t seem appropriate. Going forward, the U.S. must at the least continue to provide the support tools to its allies like Israel and Jordan in the region to defend themselves, ensure domestic stability and promote democracy. We should provide the assurance that in the event of major direct threats, America will stand with its allies to roll back the forces of terrorism and anarchy on our allies’ doorsteps and within their boundaries.