Since the onset of the Arab Spring in late 2010, it has become increasingly difficult to get a handle on the significance of fast-breaking developments throughout the Middle East.

Consider the following developments and their potential implications:

ADVERTISEMENT

• Iran: The ongoing crisis over international efforts to stop the radical regime in Tehran from developing nuclear weapons is as confusing as ever. On the one hand, as reported by the Reuters news agency, negotiations over Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West will resume this week in Istanbul, Turkey, which will bring Iran together again with representatives of the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany. Skeptics complain that Iran, like North Korea, has typically used such talks to buy additional time to continue its drive towards developing nuclear weapons while going through the motions of engaging in “diplomacy.” Meanwhile, the West is not standing still, with even stiffer economic sanctions by the European Union to take effect in July and with stepped up U.S. presence of warships in the region lest Iran attempt to close the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, former Iranian President Ali-Akhbar Rafsanjani, often described as a relative “moderate,” gave a speech urging Supreme Leader Ali Khameini to engage the U.S. in direct talks and offered other conciliatory suggestions. David Makovsky, in his recent “Can We Talk?” speech in St. Louis, suggested that political rivals might persuade Khameini to “throw President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad under the bus” as a means of seeming to move toward moderation while enabling Iran to continue furthering of its nuclear ambitions. It cannot be said with certainty that these are hopeful signs versus mere posturing and political jockeying.

• Syria: It appears that the efforts of former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan to arrange an effective “cease-fire” between the brutal dictatorship of Syrian President Bashar Assad and opposition forces have utterly failed. The New York Times reported over the weekend that Turkey’s foreign minister, Ahmed Davutoglu, reported to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon that Syria has used the so-called truce to step up its military attacks near the border with Turkey, where there has been a “relentless influx of refugees.” Turkish press reports said at least 3,000 Syrians had poured over the border into Turkey last Thursday, a record pace that brought the total up to nearly 24,000.

It also appears that more than 9,000 people have been killed in the uprising since it began in March 2011. The U.N. Security Council has been blocked from adopting any meaningful resolutions to stop the violence or force Assad from power by China and its consistent partner Russia, which continues to sell the Assad regime advanced military weapons, including fighter jets. What is the tipping point before mass killing rises to the level of “genocide,” and even if that number is reached, will it be sufficient to arouse the responsible nations of the world to take concerted action to stop the massacre of innocents in Syria?

• Egypt: Despite its earlier pledge not to field a presidential candidate, the Muslim Brotherhood will in fact take part in the election for Egypt’s top job in the upcoming election through its chief strategist and financier, Khairat el-Shater, a 62-year-old billionaire who had spent 10 years in prison during the rule of ousted President Hosni Mubarak. The Muslim Brotherhood won 43 seats in the recent parliamentary elections, while the even more radical Salafi Muslim faction won 27 percent, giving Islamists a huge 70 percent advantage in the new legislative body. Secularists in Egypt have become alarmed over the prospect of both the legislative and executive branches falling under Islamist control, and a former deputy of Mubarak’s, Omar Suleiman, who was chief of intelligence under Mubarak, has decided to run for president after having initially said he would not do so.

The announcement, according to the Associated Press reporting from Cairo, drew outrage from youth activists who spearheaded the popular uprising that forced Mubarak from power. Many of the youthful leaders of the Tahrir Square protests have said they will boycott the election on May 23 and 24. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has signed off on the release of $1.7 billion in U.S. aid to Egypt, which is still ruled by the “temporary” military government. Some optimistic Mideast observers have insisted that the Muslim Brotherhood has become “more moderate” or at least “less extreme” as it faces the prospect of actually being responsible for governing Egypt. Others take a darker view and warn that the Muslim Brotherhood will abrogate the treaty with Israel and ally itself with Hamas, its branch in Gaza and a possible Muslim Brotherhood dominated regime in Syria should Assad be forced from power.

If all of the above developments seem confusing, do not feel badly. They only serve to confirm that the old figure of speech about the Middle East is more true than ever before—trying to fully understand developments there is truly like trying to grab “Ropes of Sand.”