To those who were following the protests in Egypt, it came as no surprise that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak decided to announce his resignation. In his remarks on February 11, President Obama celebrated the end of Mubarak’s rule and praised the Egyptian protesters, comparing them to the Germans who tore down the Berlin Wall in 1989; the Indonesian students who initiated large demonstrations in 1998 that led to the resignation of then-president General Suharto (Suharto served as Indonesia’s president for 32 years from 1967 until his resignation in 1998); and Gandhi’s civil disobedience movement, which helped bring about the end of British rule in India.

But will the 2011 Egyptian revolution resemble those events? Or will it resemble the Iranian Revolution of 1979, which led to the rise of Ayatollah Khomeini and the Islamic Republic of Iran, or the democratic elections that took place in Gaza in 2005 (under the supervision of former US President Jimmy Carter), which enabled the Hamas terrorist organization to take over Gaza and to use Gaza as a launching pad from which to launch Katyusha rockets into southern Israel?

For now, the ruling leaders on Egypt’s “Supreme Military Council” have announced that they will honor the 1979 peace treaty with Israel. However, we don’t know what will happen once free elections are held. German Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel has stated publicly: “We expect future Egyptian governments to pursue peace in the Middle East, so that the contracts that were signed with Israel are respected and that Israel’s security is guaranteed.” By contrast, President Obama did not mention Israel at all in his 17-paragraph statement.

Obama expressed confidence that Egypt will pursue a credible transition to democracy. Yet those familiar with the situation in Egypt may have serious concerns regarding whether the populace will be able to govern themselves. Fifty percent of the Egyptian population lives on less than $2 a day, and 35 percent of all Egyptians – and 45 percent of Egyptian women – can’t read.

Additionally, Egypt could be facing a potential famine. The country relies on wheat imports for nearly half of its total food consumption. Food comprises more than half of spending for the poorer half of the country. Unfortunately, wheat prices have almost doubled in the past year, which means that the new government will have the daunting task of trying to figure out how to finance wheat purchases for 77 million people.

Perhaps the most troubling observation regarding Egypt is the situation currently unfolding in the Sinai desert. The Jerusalem Post has reported that Egyptian police authorities have abandoned dozens of police stations throughout the Sinai Peninsula after they were attacked by Bedouin armed with missiles and assault rifles. Israeli military experts are concerned that the territory will turn into a breeding ground for global jihad.

Israeli military and intelligence experts are watching the political situation in Egypt closely. Outgoing IDF chief of staff Gabi Ashkenazi said in a statement on February 14 that “Mubarak, for all of the criticisms during the last three decades, was an anchor of stability in the region.” Ashkenazi recognizes the risk involved with the regime change, particularly because “there has been a weakening of the moderate camp in Egypt.” Ashkenazi and other Israeli leaders fear that if Egypt slides into instability or radicalism, Israel will be the first to feel the repercussions.

Israel is particularly focused on the role of the Muslim Brotherhood in the new government. The stated mission of the Brotherhood, which claims to represent 30 percent of Egyptians, is (1) to implement Shariah (Islamic law) worldwide, and (2) to re-establish the global Islamic State (caliphate). The Brotherhood has also stated that “their work in America is a kind of grand Jihad in eliminating and destroying the Western civilization from within and sabotaging its miserable house…so that it is eliminated and God’s religion is made victorious over all other religions.” Muhammad Badie, the Brotherhood’s supreme guide, sermonized in October: “The improvement and change that the [Muslim] nation seeks can only be attained by raising a Jihadi generation that pursues death just as the enemies pursue life.”

On February 15, the Brotherhood announced that it intends to form a political party and to run in the upcoming elections. The Brotherhood is not just the most highly organized group in Egypt; it is the only organized group. The secular protesters have no organized political parties whatsoever, since Egypt has never had a democratic political system in its entire recorded history. Any planned election in the near future would be dominated by the Brotherhood.

To summarize, Egypt currently faces a monumental challenge: bringing democracy to a population that is overwhelmingly poor, illiterate and disenfranchised, and that faces potential widespread famine. The country’s military is losing control of one of its major territories, and it faces a potential takeover from the well-organized, radical Muslim Brotherhood, which is committed to the establishment of an Islamic state. In light of these obstacles, I suggest that celebrating the success of the Egyptian revolution be postponed until we see whether Egypt’s new government will be committed to respecting the peace treaty with Israel and to pursuing a fair and just system of government for the citizens of Egypt.

Galit Lev-Harir is a frequent contributor to the Jewish Light. Galit lived in Israel for nine years. Her husband, Elie Harir, is the owner of The Mediterranean Grill, an Israeli-style restaurant in Chesterfield.