As millions prepare to watch the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this week, tens of thousands of protesters are converging to rally against the ongoing war in Gaza. Inside the United Center arena, at least 30 party delegates are expected to voice their opposition to the administration’s policies on the conflict. All of this will coincide with a potential breakthrough in the negotiations over a ceasefire-hostage deal this week in Cairo, which could lead to a significant pause in the conflict.

Vice President Kamala Harris’ selection of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate (instead of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who is Jewish) sparked some optimism within the “Uncommitted” movement, a group formed to protest Democratic support for Israel at the ballot box. Many in the movement hope that this ticket, seen as more compassionate toward the suffering of Palestinians, might align more closely with their stance on the Israel-Hamas war.

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Harris has carefully navigated this complex issue, broadly supporting President Joe Biden’s efforts to secure a ceasefire deal. Political leaders and experts believe that Gaza will continue to be a key issue in the presidential race, one that could significantly affect Harris’ chances, as both the pro-Palestinian movement and pro-Israel factions make their voices heard.

The war is a top issue on some key voters’ minds

The more than 10-month-long war between Israel and Hamas is “the most fraught politically” of all foreign policy issues in this election season, said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an expert on U.S.-Israel relations. Voters traditionally rank foreign policy further down the list of issues like the economy, immigration and democracy. But the war in Gaza, he said, will affect a substantial number of U.S. voters, particularly in key swing states like Michigan, where the Arab-American population could make this a one-issue election. 

Both Harris and former President Donald Trump have called for an end to the war — Harris for an immediate ceasefire to address the dire humanitarian situation, and Trump for Israel to swiftly finish the job to “stop the killing.” However, even if Israel and Hamas agree to temporarily halt hostilities to prevent a broader regional war, the issue remains deeply polarizing for Democrats.

Mehdi Hasan, a liberal commentator who is an outspoken advocate for human rights in Gaza, said many protesters see Harris as a potential ally if she can offer concrete solutions to Palestinian issues. “The bar is pretty low for her to lean over,” he said.  

The “Uncommitted” movement — representing voters in the swing states of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin — along with its allies, has welcomed the Democratic ticket’s willingness to engage. However, they have pushed for demands like an arms embargo, which could complicate Harris’ ability to fully embrace their position.

Hasan acknowledged that “no one is under any illusions” about a presidential candidate calling for an arms embargo in the current political climate. “But that’s the whole point of a movement, of a lobby group, to apply pressure and drive change,” he said, pointing to the effort to push Biden to step aside. “I’m actually amazed at how generous the anti-war movement, young people have been towards Harris,” he said.

Jeremy Ben-Ami is the president of J Street, the self-described pro-Israel, pro-peace lobby. He believes Harris’ approach to balance support for both Israelis and Palestinians could resonate with many Democratic voters. “I don’t know that people on the extreme fringes will ever be satisfied by balance,” he said. 

What if a ceasefire deal is reached?

A ceasefire deal, on the heels of her acceptance speech at the convention, could give Harris a boost. It would demonstrate that aggressive diplomacy from the Biden administration could resolve the conflict, and will offer a stark contrast to Trump’s hands-off, isolationist foreign policy. 

But that may be short-lived. 

Evelyn Farkas, a former Pentagon official in the Obama administration, cautioned that a temporary six-week ceasefire means it could lead to renewed fighting by election time. “If there is increased fighting in the run-up to the elections, that probably will be more beneficial to Trump,” said Farkas, the executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University. “Harris will be associated with the current foreign policy and its ineffectiveness.”

Some experts remain skeptical that Harris can do much to sway voters who are deeply angry over the administration’s handling of the war. “She’s not going to associate herself with any effort to condition or restrict U.S. military assistance to Israel,” Miller, a former U.S. peace negotiator, said. “I see her coloring within the lines set by Biden — maintaining a strong pro-Israel stance while projecting empathy and a tone that makes her a different sort of actor on the Israeli-Palestinian issue.” 

Hasan said he’s heard from voters in Dearborn, Michigan, who lost family members to Israeli airstrikes in Gaza, who find it difficult to support the Democratic ticket regardless of the outcome of the talks. “People are not going to vote for an administration that is complicit in the killing of their family members, and you can’t expect them to do that,” he said, suggesting they may sit out this election.

An online poll of fewer than 400 voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, commissioned by the Institute for Middle Eastern Understanding Policy Project, showed that about a third are more likely to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee if she pledged an arms embargo on Israel. 

The view of pro-Israel Democrats

Jewish Democratic groups agree that the war in Gaza is a critical issue in the presidential race, but highlight different reasons for its importance. 

Halie Soifer, chief executive of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, said there’s a notable shift in how Israel has become crucial due to concerns about its future and rising antisemitism in the U.S. Soifer, who was a national security advisor for Harris in the Senate, said that American Jews see Harris as a partner to Biden in bolstering the U.S.-Israel relationship and combating antisemitism. 

“Jews don’t view this through a binary lens,” she said. “You can and should demonstrate empathy for the innocent loss of life. There’s nothing wrong or inherently in any way anti-Israel with those kinds of sentiments.” In Harris, she added, “you have someone who has been in the federal government for seven years, and has never wavered.”

Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster and head of the Democratic Majority for Israel, said that Jewish voters not only value the Biden-Harris administration’s support for Israel since Oct. 7, but voters in general back its policies on Israel. A DMFI-sponsored poll of 1,000 voters released on Friday showed that 68% of voters in seven battleground states want the U.S. to support Israel in its war against Hamas. 

However, Mellman cautioned about potential erosion in the traditionally strong Jewish support for Democrats due to concerns about Israel. “There’s evidence of cracks in that blue and white wall,” he said. 

Republicans are watching 

Republicans are capitalizing on the divide among the Democratic base and the unease among Jewish voters to target them in key swing states. American Jews are estimated to make up 1% to 3% of the electorate in the six swing states that Biden won in 2020 by less than 3%.

The DMFI poll showed that 28% of Democrats believe Israel’s goal in Gaza is “to kill as many Palestinians as possible and annex Gaza and the West Bank into Israel” — though a majority (55%) say Israel aims to dismantle Hamas — and 30% support cuts to U.S. military assistance to Israel. 

Matt Brooks, chief executive of the Republican Jewish Coalition, said that the RJC would plant 1,800 trees in Israel for each Democrat who addresses the convention and asks the crowd to cheer for Israel. He said the organization will launch a “Praise Israel Watch” to track all the speakers and count the number who praise Israel.

Brooks said the RJC is attempting to define Harris on Israel while she is still in her “honeymoon” period. “Electing Kamala Harris will put an honorary member of ‘The Squad’ in the Oval Office,” he said, referring to an informal group of left-wing members of Congress.

Trump echoed that in remarks to Jewish supporters last week. “Kamala Harris is the candidate of the forces who want to destroy Western civilization, but most particularly Israel and Jewish people,” Trump said. “If Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are elected, the radical left flag burners and Hamas sympathizers will not just be causing chaos on our streets; they’ll be running U.S. foreign policy in the White House, and Israel will be gone.” 

Trump has also called Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the highest-ranking elected Jewish official in the U.S., “like a Palestinian.”

The Harris campaign rejected that Republican branding. “Vice President Harris believes Americans want a president who unites our country instead of divides it, uses the power of the presidency to help families instead of hurt them, and has a vision for our future, instead of taking us backward,” said James Singer, a Harris campaign spokesperson.

This story was originally published in the Forward. Click here to get the Forward’s free email newsletters delivered to your inbox.