Martin Fletcher, one of the most respected foreign correspondents in television news, and who has served as NBC News Bureau Chief in Tel Aviv, has been reporting on the unfolding crisis in Egypt and elsewhere in the Middle East.  Fletcher was a featured speaker at the 2010 St. Louis Jewish Book Festival.

Fletcher, who has covered almost every conflict and natural disaster in the Middle East, Europe and Africa, has won five Emmy Awards, a Columbia University duPont Award, several Overseas Press Club Awards and a cameraman’s award from Britain’s Royal Society of Television.  The London native is currently based in Israel and New York as a special correspondent for NBC News/Universal.

The Jewish Light caught up with Fletcher Sunday just before he was preparing to return to Israel from New York City, where the Museum of Jewish Heritage had held an event regarding his latest book “Walking Israel.”

In your long career in Israel and the Middle East with NBC News, have you ever seen a comparable period as the past few weeks with the revolutions in Tunis and Egypt, the Hezbollah-named new prime minister in Lebanon and unrest in Algeria and Jordan?

The wars were great dramas but this social upheaval is in my experience unprecedented. It is a turning point in the Arab world where the autocratic regimes came face-to-face with modern reality – fueled by Al-Jazeera, social media and a young, poor, unemployed new generation desperate for a chance in life.

You told your colleagues at NBC that the events in Egypt did not surprise you.  Why?

It was a revolt waiting to happen – so many people with so little wanting so much and no chance of getting it. The moment a chance arose they seized it. However, it isn’t over yet. It’s still possible for (Egyptian President Hosni) Mubarak to survive – and the same in the other regimes you mentioned. It’s also a generational thing. These aging leaders have to move over eventually and they are failing to control the pace of change. The suddenness of it all is shocking though.

If Mubarak indeed is forced to leave office as seems likely, what kind of interim regime is likely to emerge?  Are Mubarak’s handpicked vice president or Mohammed El-Barredei realistic options?

No, they aren’t realistic options. Omar Suleiman is respected but too much of the same thing, and (Mohammad) El-Baradei is trying to jump on the bandwagon but has no popular support. More likely is an election with a coalition that includes Muslim Brotherhood. For better or worse it will reflect the will of the people.

The Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has placed a gag order on his Cabinet not to comment on the situation in Egypt.  Is that a wise policy?

Yes. They can only make things worse. Israel must not be identified with either side although in fact they have every interest in seeing Mubarak, or at least his policies, survive.

What are the best-case and worst-case scenarios that could unfold in Egypt and Lebanon?

In Egypt, the best case would be the survival of Mubarak, from Israel’s point of view. Worst case is a Muslim Brotherhood takeover, which is unlikely in the short term. In Lebanon, best case is maybe Syria reasserting control over Hezbollah. They kicked out Syria and got Hezbollah and Iran. Syria was better. Worst case: Hezbollah-dominated government.

What role will the once-outlawed and still strong Muslim Brotherhood play in the new government?

A strong behind-the-scenes role might not be a bad thing. In Jordan, Islamists got co-opted into the government and calmed down. To an extent, that may happen in Lebanon, too.

Israel could find itself surrounded by the Muslim Brotherhood-influenced Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood branch Hamas in Gaza and a Hezbollah-influenced new government in Lebanon.  What are the security implications of such a possibility?

War, war, war – against a very clearly defined enemy, instead of the shadowy enemies of terrorism. That be very uncomfortable for Israel, but it would make clearer to the world Israel’s dilemma, though.

The new prime minister designate in Lebanon has said he will not be controlled by Hezbollah and will allow the U.N. investigation into possible Hezbollah/Syrian involvement in the assassination of Rafik Hariri to go forward.  Do you take this as a positive sign?

Yes. Reports are that he is no Hezbollah stooge. But if not, why did they push him forward? It’s too early to know.

Any other thoughts or observations that you would like to share with our readers?

Recent events represent an earthquake in the region – one that could lead to more democratic reforms, especially if Egypt for once has a fair election. But it can also leave Israel surrounded by Islamic governments. That would leave little Jordan very vulnerable too -Israel’s only Arab friend would not be a good label for such a vulnerable nation.